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THE IMPORTANCE OF VOLUME

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Volume measures the number of shares traded in a stock or contracts traded in futures or options.

Volume can be an indicator of market strength, as rising markets on increasing volume are typically viewed as strong and healthy.

When prices fall on increasing volume, the trend is gathering strength to the downside.

When prices reach new highs (or no lows) on decreasing volume, watch out; a reversal might be taking shape.

On Balance Volume and Klinger Indicator are examples of charting tools that are based on volume.

Basic Guidelines for Using Volume

When analyzing volume, there are usually guidelines used to determine the strength or weakness of a move. As traders, we are more inclined to join strong moves and take no part in moves that show weakness—or we may even watch for an entry in the opposite direction of a weak move. These guidelines do not hold true in all situations, but they offer general guidance for trading decisions.

1. Trend Confirmation

A rising market should see rising volume. Buyers require increasing numbers and increasing enthusiasm in order to keep pushing prices higher. Increasing price and decreasing volume might suggest a lack of interest, and this is a warning of a potential reversal. This can be hard to wrap your mind around, but the simple fact is that a price drop (or rise) on little volume is not a strong signal. A price drop (or rise) on large volume is a stronger signal that something in the stock has fundamentally changed.

2. Exhaustion Moves and Volume

In a rising or falling market, we can see exhaustion moves. These are generally sharp moves in price combined with a sharp increase in volume, which signals the potential end of a trend. Participants who waited and are afraid of missing more of the move pile in at market tops, exhausting the number of buyers.

At a market bottom, falling prices eventually force out large numbers of traders, resulting in volatility and increased volume. We will see a decrease in volume after the spike in these situations, but how volume continues to play out over the next days, weeks, and months can be analyzed using the other volume guidelines.

3. Bullish Signs

Volume can be useful in identifying bullish signs. For example, imagine volume increases on a price decline and then the price moves higher, followed by a move back lower. If the price on the move back lower doesn't fall below the previous low, and volume is diminished on the second decline, then this is usually interpreted as a bullish sign.

4. Volume and Price Reversals

After a long price move higher or lower, if the price begins to range with little price movement and heavy volume, this might indicate that a reversal is underway, and prices will change direction.

5. Volume and Breakouts vs. False Breakouts

On the initial breakout from a range or other chart pattern, a rise in volume indicates strength in the move. Little change in volume or declining volume on a breakout indicates a lack of interest and a higher probability for a false breakout. 

6. Volume History

Volume should be looked at relative to recent history. Comparing today to volume 50 years ago might provide irrelevant data. The more recent the data sets, the more relevant they are likely to be.

The Bottom Line

Volume is a handy tool to study trends, and as you can see, there are many ways to use it. Basic guidelines can be used to assess market strength or weakness, as well as to check if volume is confirming a price move or signaling that a reversal might be at hand. Indicators based on volume are sometimes used to help in the decision process. In short, while volume is not a precise tool, entry and exit signals can sometimes be identified by looking at price action, volume, and a volume indicator.

What is Volume?

Very simply, volume represents all the recorded trades for a security during a specified period. This specified period can range from monthly charts to 1-minute charts and everything in between.

Most trading platforms, Tradingsim included, print each volume bar as either green or red. Green bars are printed if the stock closes up in price for a period and red bars indicate a stock closed lower for a given period.

Volume has two major premises: When prices rise or fall, an increase in volume acts as confirmation that the rise or fall in price is real and that the price movement had strength. When prices rise or fall and there is a decrease in volume, then this might be interpreted as being a weak price move, because the price move had very little strength and interest from traders.

Read more at: https://commodity.com/technical-analysis/volume/



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